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China HSBC PMI Falls To 48.2, Fourth Straight Month Of Job Contraction
This was slightly higher than the preliminary 48.1 reading we got from the HSBC flash number on June 20.
Nevertheless, a reading below 50 signals contraction in the industry.
“For the second quarter as a whole, the index averaged its lowest quarterly value since Q1 2009,” according to the report.
- New orders fall to greatest extent in seven months, as export orders slump
- Factory output declines marginally in comparison; stocks of finished goods rise
- Input costs and output charges down
“It is all about growth and employment,” said HSBC economist Hongbin Qu. “As external demand has weakened and domestic demand hasn’t shown a meaningful improvement in response to earlier easing measures, growth is likely to be on track for further slowdown, hence weighing on the jobs market. But as inflation eases sharply, Beijing has plenty of room and policy ammunition to avoid a hard landing. We expect more decisive easing efforts to come through in the coming months.”
On jobs: “The size of China’s manufacturing workforce contracted for the fourth month running in June, albeit at only a modest rate that was the weakest in three months. Job shedding in part reflected spare capacity in the sector, which was highlighted by a slight decline in backlogs of work.”
EARLIER, 10:10 PM EST
All eyes will be on China’s June HSBC manufacturing PMI number, which will be published at 10:30 PM EST. In May, the measure fell to 48.4 from 49.3 in April.
The preliminary June HSBC manufacturing PMI number (aka the flash number) fell to 48.1. Many consider this to be a good estimate of the final print.
China is the world’s second largest economy. It’s also the global economy’s most powerful engine of growth. So, deterioration in its massive manufacturing industry is concerning.
It’s also worth noting that China’s government also publishes a manufacturing PMI number, which they published last night. This official June PMI number declined to 50.2 from 50.4 in May. This wasn’t as bad as the 49.9 expected by economists.
However, the internal metrics of the official PMI were not good. All of the orders components of the index fell, reflecting contraction. Also, the employment index fell to 49.7 from 50.5. Here’s a breakdown of the official numbers.
Here’s a 3-year look at how the official PMI number compares to HSBC’s number courtesy of Bloomberg BRIEF economist Michael McDonough. As McDonough notes, the HSBC number has a greater emphasis on small and medium sized enterprises.