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Forget The Gloomy Headlines: Here Are 9 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks And The Economy
Stock market analysts and strategists are feeling bearish these days.
But who can blame them? Friday’s disastrous jobs number only added to a series of disappointing economic data coming out of the U.S. Furthermore, there’s also skepticism about the latest Euro bailout and fears of a Chinese hard landing.
However, it isn’t all bad. There are positive catalysts in the economy for those who look.
Top economist and analysts gave at least 9 reasons why we should see the glass as half full.
The forward indicators suggest jobs should improve very soon
“Intriguingly, both Manpower and NFIB surveys show that employment trends should improve going forward.” wrote Citi’s Tobias Levkovich right after the June jobs number came out.
A historical pattern shows the August jobs number tend to be awesome
Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna turned out to be right on with his prediction for a weak June employment number, and he’s optimistic about August’s:
“If the pattern of the last two years continues to hold, the economy could experience two more months of soft employment reports—the June release next week and then the July employment report in early August—before employment would then rebound and possibly very sharply.”
Strategists haven’t been this bearish in 15 years, and that’s bullish
From Bank of America’s technical analysis team:
“After triggering a Buy signal in May, our measure of Wall Street bullishness on stocks declined again, marking the ninth time in eleven months that the indicator has fallen. The 0.8 ppt decline pushed the indicator down to 49.3, the first time below 50 in nearly 15 years, suggesting that sell side strategists are now more bearish on equities than they were at any point during the collapse of the Tech Bubble or the recent Financial Crisis. Given the contrarian nature of this indicator, we are encouraged by Wall Street’s lack of optimism and the fact that strategists are recommending that investors significantly underweight equities vs. a traditional long-term average benchmark weighting of 60-65%.”