Here’s What To Expect From Tonight’s Massive Chinese Data Dump (FXI)

By admin on August 9, 2012

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China is looking at two days of crucial data releases that should give investors a better idea of the extent of the Chinese slowdown.

Between August 9 – 10, China will be out with consumer price, producer price, industrial production, fixed asset investment (FAI), retail sales, trade balance, and import and export data.

Here’s what to expect from the first data dump out tonight:

Consumer price

Societe Generale’s Wei Yao
Consumer prices should decline again, easing to 1.7 percent in July. Food prices have been increasing since early July.

“Although still far too early to call it a full-fledged rebound in broad inflationary pressures, the recent surge in global food prices, if it persists throughout the summer, will push CPI back above 3% yoy in Q4, setting a much higher hurdle for aggressive monetary easing.”

Bank of America’s Ting Lu
Consumer inflation is expected to fall to 1.7 percent YoY in July. Food inflation should be down 0.3 percent month-over-month (MoM), while non-food inflation should be flat or slightly lower, since services prices should have held up despite a decline in raw material prices.

Producer Price

Wei Yao
Producer prices are expected to decline 0.3 percent month-over-month (MoM), and 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY) in July as companies continue to de-stock in sectors where demand is lower than what they can supply.

Ting Lu
Producer prices should fall to 2.6 percent YoY in July and 0.6 percent MoM because of a slump in global commodity prices and fuel price cuts in May and June.

Industrial production

Wei Yao
Chinese industrial production is expected to climb 9.7 percent YoY in July and if the number were to match Yao’s forecast it would reiterate her call for a “slow bottoming” in the second half of the year.

Ting Lu
Industrial production should be up 9.9 percent but a significant jump might only surface in the coming months. This is because the impact of policy easing measures will only come through with a lag, and because of weather conditions since the first half of July was extremely hot, while ths second half saw rainstorms and floods.

Fixed Asset Investments (FAI)

Wei Yao
Total FAI growth is expected rise to 23 percent YoY and year-to-date (Ytd) FAI growth is expected to rise 20.9 percent YoY. China’s recent railway investments are expected to be the biggest reasons for this growth. Property investment isn’t however expected to gather pace.

Ting Lu
Year-to-date FAI should rise 20.4 percent YoY, while FAI in the month of July should ease to 20.4 percent YoY, from 21.2 percent in June. Government measures to support the economy since early May have helped drive FAI.

Retail Sales

Wei Yao
Nominal retail sales are expected decline marginally to 13.5 percent YoY in July, from 13.7 percent in June.

Ting Lu
Headline retail sales are expected to decline to 13.5 percent year-over-year, while inflation adjusted retail sales are expected to stay flat at 12 percent YoY.