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The US Garbage Indicator Is Telling Us Q3 GDP Stinks
People have been making a big stink about the garbage indicator since we featured it in July.
It’s AAR rail waste carloads, a coincident indicator that has a pretty strong correlation with U.S. GDP.
And based on the most recent readings, it’s telling us that GDP growth is slumping in Q3. Unfortunately, we won’t start getting Q3 GDP readings until October.
Here’s another chart from McDonough taking a looking at the monthly measure on a historical basis: