Two Crucial Economic Datapoints Are Coming Out Today

By admin on December 26, 2012

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Depending on the status of Fiscal Cliff rumors, it could be quiet today, but there are two important economic datapoints.

From Calculated Risk:

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October will be released. Although this is the October report, it is really a 3 month average of August, September and October. The consensus is for a 4.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for September. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 4.1% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.3% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• At 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 6 for this survey from 9 in November (Above zero is expansion).

Both of these should be interesting.

The first, obviously, because housing turned into one of the big economic stories of the year, and this is the last reading for this calendar year (although of course November and December data will come out in 2013).

Richmond Fed manufacturing will be interesting to see if it confirms what other data (like Philly Fed and Flash PMI) have suggested, that manufacturing has picked up lately. That’s crucial because it tests the notion that there’s a pre-Fiscal Cliff confidence freeze.

Crucially, the Richmond Fed number should be more clean of any Sandy-related distortions (relative to the Philly region) so this will be good to watch.

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