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ECONOMISTS ANSWER: What If China’s Economy Lands Hard?
China released Q4 2012 GDP figures last night, and the numbers came in slightly above economists’ estimates, re-accelerating to 7.9 percent growth year-over-year from 7.4 percent in the previous quarter.
The numbers may distance the Chinese economy from the feared “hard landing scenario” a bit.
However, China’s fate depends very much on that of the global economy over the coming year – and a big shock in one of the world’s major economies could revive fears of a hard landing once again. China’s fragile shadow banking system is also still a major concern.
Guy Stear and Wei Yao of Société Générale put together an excellent presentation examining how a China hard landing could come about and the impact it would have on a range of asset classes, as well as clients’ views on the hard landing scenario.
Note: Thanks to Société Générale for allowing us to feature this presentation.