The Economy Almost Always Does Worse During A President’s Second Term

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The economic performance of American presidents tends to deteriorate during their second term

THE economic auguries for Barack Obama’s second term are not good. By comparing the changes across eight economic indicators (GDP, industrial production, household incomes, house prices, unemployment, consumer confidence, stockmarkets and federal debt) during their presidential terms, The Economist has analysed the economic performance of all 11 two-term presidents since Teddy Roosevelt took office in September 1901. The first chart below shows that the average change in each of these economic indicators. With the exception of federal debt, which rises at a slower rate than in the first term, on average, all these indicators deteriorate. The economic performance of the 11 two-term presidents worsens by some 4.2 percentage points on average in their second terms compared with their first.

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